33-year old Tom Brady has set a new NFL record.  Brady has thrown 319 straight passes without a pickoff breaking a record that stood for 19 years (Bernie Kosar with 308) and he’s still going!  Brady has thrown 24 TD passes and 0 INTs in the last 10 weeks which is amazing!  Brady has played in 15 games for the Patriots so far this year and he has completed 314 of 476 passes (66%) for 3,701 yards with 34 TD passes and 4 INTs (109.8 QB Rating).  He has also carried the ball 31 times for 30 yards (1.0 ypc) with 1 TD run this year.  Brady has now played in 144 games (142 starts) in his NFL career and he has completed 2,986 of 4,694 passes (63.6%) for 34,545 yards with 259 TD passes and 103 INTs (95.0 QB Rating).  Brady is #10 in completion %, #20 in passing yards, #11 in TD passes and #5 in QB Rating in NFL history.  He is 110-32 (77.5%) as a starting QB during the regular season and he is 14-4 (77.8%) during the post season.  Brady is 3-1 in Super Bowls so far in his career.  I used to think that Joe Montana was the best QB I ever saw until I got a good look at Tom Brady.

The lines look really close to me in 10 of the 14 games in the NFL the next two days.  That means you should focus on the other four games and stay pretty much away from the rest of them if you want to make some money.  Here is how I see it this weekend:

SIMPLY THE BEST:

Philadelphia Eagles over the Minnesota Vikings:  When I see a team in the NFL favored by 14.5 points my first intuition is usually to bet on the underdog.  But in this case I just don’t think that would be a smart move.  The Vikings are starting rookie Joe Webb at QB and I just can’t see him putting many points on the board against the blitz heavy Eagles.  I like the Eagles to win this game 34-3 and to easily cover the pointspread.

THE OTHER GOOD ONES:

San Diego Chargers over the Cincinnati Bengals:  The Bengals won last weekend but the Browns aren’t the Chargers.  The Chargers need this game and they are going to blast the Bengals 27-10 and cover the 9.5 points they are spotting the Bengals.

Houston Texans over the Denver Broncos:  Both of these teams have horrible defenses, but, I will take Matt Schaub over Tim Tebow any day of the week.  I like the Texans to win this game 34-24 and to cover the field goal they are spotting the Broncos.

Oakland Raiders over the Indianapolis Colts:  The Raiders have played great in the Black Hole this year while the Colts have not been good on the road (3-4).  Both teams need this game but in the end it’s going to be the Raiders’ running game which helps them control the clock and the scoreboard.  I like the Raiders to win this game 27-23 so you might want to take a chance on the money line instead of taking the 3 points.

BETTER THEN THE REST:

Washington Redskins over the Jacksonville Jaguars:  This should be a good football game as both teams have pretty solid offenses and poor defenses. I think the Jaguars are going to win this game but I just don’t see them kicking the Redskins’ butts this Sunday.  I like the Jaguars to win this game 26-23 so I think the Redskins will cover the 7-point spread.

Seattle Seahawks over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  I just don’t think that the Buccaneers are capable of blowing anyone out.  The Seahawks and Bucs both need this game so I see it being close the whole way.  I like the Bucs to win this game 23-20, but I like the Seahawks to cover with the six points.

IFFY GAMES:

Buffalo Bills over the New England Patriots:  The Bills have played well lately and they gave the Patriots a battle in New England early in the year when the Bills weren’t playing too good.  The Patriots are on fire right now and they are trying to lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs which they will get with a win here.  I like the Patriots to win this game 34-27 but I like the Bills to cover getting 9 points.

Chicago Bears over the New York Jets:  These two teams both have great defense and QBs that make mistakes at times.  This will be a low scoring slugfest so I’m going to lay my money on the team with the better kicker.  That means I like the Bears to win this game 16-13 and cover the 1 point that they are spotting the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs over the Tennessee Titans:  The Chiefs have been awesome at home and they need a win today to stay ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West.  The Titans are trying to finish a tough season strongly as Jeff Fisher is fighting for his job.  I like the Chiefs to win this game 23-20 and the Titans to cover with the 5 points they are getting.

Green Bay Packers over the New York Giants:  This should be a great football game as both teams need a win if they want to make the playoffs.  I look for Aaron Rodgers to lead the Packers’ offense to more good plays then the Giants meaning that I like the Packers to win this game 28-23 and to cover the 3 points they are spotting the Giants.

STAY AWAY FROM THESE GAMES:

Cleveland Browns over the Baltimore Ravens:  Cleveland fans will always hate the Ravens and they will make it nearly impossible for the Browns to come out flat in this game.  The Ravens need this game to keep pace with the Steelers and they will get it, but not without a fight.  I like the Ravens to win this game 23-20, but the Browns to cover with the 4 points.

Detroit Lions over the Miami Dolphins:  The Dolphins are 1-6 at home while the Lions are 1-6 on the road so something has to give.  I think this will be a low scoring game with the Fins coming out on top 20-17, but the Lions will cover with the 3.5 points they are getting.

St. Louis Rams over the San Francisco 49ers:  It’s amazing to me that the Rams and 49ers still have good shots of making the playoffs because they both stink.  I think the Rams are going to pull out a close one 23-20 at home and I think they will cover the 2.5 points they are giving the Niners…..barely.

Atlanta Falcons over the New Orleans Saints:  Matt Ryan is 19-1 as a starter at home in his NFL career.  The Falcons can lock up the best record in the NFC with a win tomorrow night.  The Saints can still win the NFC South with a win and some help next weekend.  I like the Falcons to win this game 30-27 and to cover the 2.5 points they are giving the Saints.

Doug Williams might have won the MVP Award in Super Bowl XXII but anyone that watched that game knows that RB Timmy Smith had just as much to do with that win as Williams did.  All Smith did in the Super Bowl was carry the football 22 times for 204 yards (9.4 ypc) with 2 TD runs and he also caught 1 pass for 9 yards!  This came completely out of nowhere for the Redskins as Smith was a backup that didn’t play much in 1987.  He played in 7 games (0 starts) during the regular season for the Redskins and he carried the ball 29 times for 126 yards (4.3 ypc).  He also caught 1 pass for -2 yards (-2.0 ypc) that year.  Smith played in 22 games (9 starts) in only three years in the NFL and he carried the ball 190 times for 602 yards (3.2 ypc) with 3 TD runs.  He also caught 9 passes for 51 yards (5.7 avg) in his NFL career.  Smith might have just been a shooting star in the NFL but he had his biggest moments in the biggest game of the year and for that he will always be remembered in Washington.  By the way, Smith’s 204 yards rushing is the most ever in Super Bowl history and it has withstood 22 chances to break it.

The games look very interesting this weekend and I hope to give you better advice then I did last week.  Here is how I would consider betting on these games:

PUSH MOST OF THE CHIPS TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TABLE:

Oakland Raiders over the Denver Broncos:  The Raiders completely destroyed the Broncos 59-14 in Denver just a few weeks ago.  I look for them to run all over the Broncos in the Black Hole, ruining Tim Tebow’s NFL debut as a starting QB.  I like the Raiders to win this game 38-17 and to easily cover the 7.5 points they are spotting the Broncos.

PUSH THE REST OF THE CHIPS TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TABLE:

Arizona Cardinals over the Carolina Panthers:  I was shocked when the line on this game came out.  The Panthers who are 1-12 on the season are actually favored by 2.5 points.  I would’t take the Panthers’ first team and spot their 2nd team 2.5 points.  The Cardinals showed some life last weekend and I look for that to continue.  I like the Cardinals to win this game 17-10 and I would bet the money line.

SOLID BETS:

Jacksonville Jaguars over the Indianapolis Colts:  The Jaguars can win the AFC South with a win today.  They have the kind of offense that is poison to the Colts’ D as they love to run the ball.  The Jaguars will control the clock just enough to win this game 33-30 and they should easily cover seeing how they are getting 4.5 points from the Colts.

New England Patriots over the Green Bay Packers:  The Packers are starting Matt Flynn at QB in the place of an injured Aaron Rodgers.  That means they are coming to a gun fight with a butter knife.  Tom Brady has won 26 consecutive regular season games at home and he will make it 27 later tonight.  I like the Patriots to win this game 38-17 and to cover the 14 points they are spotting the Packers.

Atlanta Falcons over the Seattle Seahawks:  Both of these teams are in first place and need this game.  Unless Pete Carroll coaches the game of his life, I don’t see the Seahawks having much of a chance here.  Matt Ryan and his boys are going to win this game 30-17 and cover the 6.5 pointspread.

Chicago Bears over the Minnesota Vikings:  The Vikings are going to start rookie sixth round pick Joe Webb at QB this Monday Night.  The Vikings drafted him to play WR.  The Bears have a lot to play for in this game as they are 1 game up on the Packers in the NFC North.  I like the Bears to win this game 20-7 and to cover the 7 points they are giving the Vikings. 

New Orleans Saints over the Baltimore Ravens:  Amazingly, the Saints have had the better defense between these two teams this year.  When you couple that with the fact that the Saints also have the better offense, I think the Ravens are in some trouble in this game.  I like the Saints to win this game 27-23 and to not even need the 1.5 points they are getting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Detroit Lions:  The Lions have lost 26 games in a row on the road and this isn’t a good matchup for them.  The Bucs are 8-0 against teams with losing records and the Lions certainly qualify as one of those as they are 3-10 on the year.  I like the Buccaneers to win this game 23-13 and to cover the 5 points they are spotting the Lions.

COULD GO EITHER WAY:

Cleveland Browns over the Cincinnati Bengals:  The Bengals are already planning off-season vacations as they have lost 10 games in a row.  The Browns are still playing with vigor and I see them sweeping the Battle of Ohio this year.  I like the Browns to beat the Bengals 24-21 today so they won’t need the 1 point they are getting.

Dallas Cowboys over the Washington Redskins:  Jason Garrett has his troops playing well since taking over as the Cowboys’ head coach.  The Redskins are in disarray right now as Mike Shanahan is starting Rex Grossman over Donovan McNabb at QB today.  I like the Cowboys to win this game 30-20 and to cover the 7 points they are spotting the Redskins.

New York Jets over the Pittsburgh Steelers:  I think the Steelers are going to win a slobberknocker in Pittsburgh today.  I think Little Ben will make one more big play in this game than Mark Sanchez will.  I like the Steelers to win this game 20-17, but I like the Jets to cover with the 5.5 points.

Buffalo Bills over the Miami Dolphins:  The Dolphins are playing for something today as they still have playoff hopes.  The Bills are only playing for pride but they have given opposing teams fits lately.  I like the Dolphins to win this game 20-17, but I like the Bills to cover with the 5 points.

Tennessee Titans over the Houston Texans:  The Texans make every game a high scoring affair as they have a good offense and a awful defense.  With that in mind, I like the Titans to win this game 30-27 and to cover the 1 point they are spotting the Texans.

Kansas City Chiefs over the St. Louis Rams:  Both teams really need this game.  But, the Chiefs have been awful on the road while the Rams have been solid at home.  I like the Rams to win this game 21-20, but the Chiefs to cover with the 3 points they are getting.

PUSH TIME:

New York Giants over the Philadelphia Eagles:  I look for the Giants to play a great game today.  But the Eagles are going to be right there in the end.  I like the Giants to win this game 30-27 and for it to be a push seeing how the Giants are spotting the Eagles 3 points.

The Yankees have been losing out on all of the big fish in free agency as it appears that no one wants to take their blood money.  Maybe it was the way that they treated Derek Jeter before re-signing the Captain.  But in the case of Cliff Lee it may have come down to how some idiot fans as Yankee Stadium treated his wife during the playoffs last year.  The Yankees coveted Lee because he is a big game pitcher which is something they don’t currently have on the pitching staff.  Lee has pitched in 10 games (all starts) in his post season career and he is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP.  With the Yankees’ stated goal of winning the World Series every year this has to be a blow to them.  The best starting pitcher left on the free agent market is Carl Pavano and I would be stunned to see the Yankees go down that road again.  New York doesn’t seem to have the luster it once had when signing free agents.  They aimed for Cliff Lee and they settled with signing a catcher (Russell Martin) today.