Welcome everyone to the best time of the year for gambling, the NFL regular season. It is the pinnacle of every sports gamblers year, and I for one am excited at the prospect of the season. I am going to take myself through the season starting with $1,500, and I am going to see how far that can take me. I am going to make my picks and give a reason for each one of the picks. Now before I get started the picks will be put into three categories…
1.Marginal picks- These are picks that I am really not too sure of, and subsequently are not going to bet a lot of money on. These picks are going to make or break my year in the long run, because there are many more of these type games than for sure locks.
2.Picks I would tell other people about- These are games that I feel are safe-bets and can be teased or bet straight-up. I normally use stats and trends for these picks.
3.No-Brainier- Either Vegas screwed up or it’s fixed.
- Props- I will also be including Props every week, and will limit it to $50 on these bets (props are side bets, i.e. which QB will throw for more yards in a game). Or a parlay or other types of wagers I feel can bring the greenbacks home.
1 Titans @ Steelers, Vegas PIT by 6.0, O/U 34.5
These two teams have had a large grudge working since last years trampling of the terrible towels.
Pittsburg is a good home team (NFL home teams are more likely to cover than road teams), and the Titans are coming off an off-season in which they lost their best defensive player (Albert Haynsworth). The Steelers have a healthy Willy Parker and a healthy Rashard Mendenhall. I think that the Steelers will be able to run at will against the Titans, and thus control the clock and the game. I do not think Collins can put up the numbers in the air to get the Steelers suffocating run defense away from the line for Johnson. Take the Steelers for $25. Final Score Steelers 24- Titans 13.
1 Dolphins @
Atlanta, Vegas ATL by 4.0, O/U 43.5
Dolphins are going to suffer from the usual 3 game drop that surprise teams suffer from. Pennington is average at best, and the Wildcat has been figured out and Ronnie Brown is not that good. I like Matty Ice to keep up his performance from his rookie year, especially since they added Tony at TE. He should open up the middle of the field both for Ryan and Michael Turner. I think Atlanta comes out and makes a statement on
Miami. Take the Falcons for $50. Final score Falcons 28-
1 Broncos @ Bengals, Vegas CIN by 4.0, O/U 43.0
This game is between two teams that no one cares about, and is a general mess. It’s a game that gamblers stay away from. But it is my job to pick these games so I will give you a reason to pick this game. For one in these situations always take the home team. Bad teams play even worse on the road, and the Broncos are an awful team (Kyle Orton has got that bad finger which is trouble.) Also, the Bengals have to be a little better this year with Palmer at full strength, and Ochocinco looking to rebound. I just do not see anyway that Denver comes close to winning this game, especially with a rookie at running back in
Moreno. Take the Bengals for $35. Final Score Cincy 31-
3 Vikings @ Browns, Vegas MIN by 4.0, O/U 40.0
The Vikes are poised to have a really good season. They have all the tools, and their Williams’ are starting, at least in Week 1.
Cleveland on the other hand is for some idiotic reason keeping it’s starting QB a secret, which will not matter. The Vikes are just too much on either side of the ball, and AP will run all over the Browns. Take the Vikings for $150. And if your feeling frisky I think I might take a tease on the Under and the spread in this game for $25. Final Score MIN 28-
2 Jacksonville @ Indianapolis, Vegas
IND by 7, O/U 44
I really do not know how I feel about the Jags heading into the season, especially since MJD is hurt right now. I feel like Jack del
Rio really needs to start winning games or he might be canned in midseason, and everything points to the Jags being a disaster. They lost their best WR to drugs, and their pass coverage was shaky in the preseason. The Colts still have Peyton Manning, and sometimes that is all you need in the NFL. The Colts also have a potential 11 win team, and still have a high-powered offense. Addai looks healthy but even if he is these teams have historically played close games. I say take the Points but buy it up to 10 for $75. Final score Colts 28- Jags 24.
3 Lions @ Saints, Vegas NO by 13, O/U 49
I cannot stress enough that this will be the blowout of the week. If you like free money bet this game heavy. The Saints could be the best offense in the NFC, and the Lions are definitely one of the worst teams in the league. Everything points towards a blow out of epic proportions. Take the Saints for $175, and tease the over for $25. Final score Saints 41- Lions 20.
2 Cowboys @ Bucs, Vegas DAL by 6, O/U 39
This one could get tricky, but I think
Dallas will cover pretty easily. The Bucs just fired their offensive coordinator and that is never a good sign.
Dallas is a good offensive team with a power run attack to control the clock.
Dallas also has a Romo and he usually is solid in the regular season. I do not trust Leftwich at all, and as for Cadillac I think
Dallas will have 8 in the box all day. Take the Cowboys for $40. Final Score Cowboys 30- Bucs 13.
1 Eagles @ Panthers, Vegas CAR by 1.5, O/U 43.5
This is definitely the definition of a game to stay away from. Delhomme’s awful playoff game and general incompetence, mixed with Philly having to get a new D-coordinator gives mixed signals. I think that the power run game of the Panthers will be enough to keep Philly from notching a W in Week 1. Also, I can already see Mike Vick disrupting this team, as Reid fumbles around trying to get him playing time. Take the Panthers for $30, and take the under for $20. Final score Panthers 20 – Eagles 17.
3 Chiefs @ Ravens, Vegas BAL by 13, O/U 36
This is the lock of the week for me. I really like the Ravens this year. Flacco is poised to break out, especially since Mason came out of retirement. The Ravens also have the luxury of putting McClain at FB and Rice at RB1, and that is something to envy. The defense loses Rex Ryan, but still has playmakers at virtually every spot in the lineup. KC on the other hand has no O-coordinator, and is a rebuilding project. I feel like
Cassel is a huge bust, and Larry Johnson cannot carry a team anymore. I would be surprised if the Chiefs score a touchdown in this game. Take the Ravens for $225, and the Under for $50. Final Score Ravens 27- Chiefs 6
2 Jets @ Houston, Vegas HOU by 4.5, O/U 43.5
Every gambler should know where the rookie QB are playing and bet heavily against them (this year, if you did it last year your probably in the poor house). Rookie QB with no receivers and an old running back on the road = loss.
Houston has Matt Schaub back and when he plays he plays well. I like
Houston to win 9 games this year, and Week 1 should put them 1/9th of the way there. Plus, a guy like Steve Slaton is someone to bet on. Take
Houston for $75. Final Score
Houston 31 – Jets 13.
1 Redskins @ Giants, Vegas Giants by 6.5, O/U 37
I would stay away from this game.
Washington has made some serious upgrades to the defense, and with Haynesworth I think they can stop the run game of the Giants. Also, I think that Manning is going to struggle without Plax. I really do not like Cambell and the ‘Skins either, but I think they can keep it close. Buy 1 point and take the points for $30. Final Score Giants 20- Redskins 17.
1 49’ers @
Arizona, Vegas ARI by 6.5, O/U 43.5
I have to say I like the 49er’s straight up in this game. I think that the 49er’s will run the ball with authority and be able to keep Kurt Warner and CO of the field. I think
Arizona is set up perfectly for a let down, as most Super Bowl teams fall victim to after their year in the sun. I also think that the Boldin situation has to be a distraction for the Cardinals. I like that Shaun Hill does not turn the ball over, and I think Frank Gore will have a much better year than last year. Take the 49er’s for $30. Final score 49er’s 24- Cardinals 20.
2 St. Louis @ Seattle,Vegas
SEA by 8.5, O/U 41.5I hate the Rams this year. Bulger is past his prime, and the offensive line showed that they cannot even make room for a stud like
Seattle has Hasselback coming back, and has given him more weapons with T.J. Also, last year
Seattle was plagued with more injuries than anyone else in the NFL and they will rebound to 8-8 and possibly win the West. The Rams are still a sorry bunch and will get beat up through the air in this game. Take the Seahawks for $75, and the over for $15. Final Score Seattle 31-
St. Louis 20.1 Bears @ Packers, Vegas GB by 3.5, O/U 46.5This is going to be a tough inter-divisional game. It would be a pick’em if the Pack weren’t at home. The Bears have a QB who can throw it, but may not have anyone to throw it too besides Olsen. I like Forte to have a big day, but I am not sure it will be enough against the Pack’s offense. Aaron Rodgers has looked great this preseason and should continue his excellence into the season. Also, Grant is fully healthy and he had a huge second half last year. The real separation will be
Jennings and Driver. I don’t think that Vasher and Tillman can contain them all game, and there will be long completions. I also can see this game getting into a shootout. But I like the Pack, but be safe and buy it down to 2.5 for $30, and if you are feeling lucky take the over in a parlay for $15. Final Score GB 35- Bears 28.
3 Bills @ Pats, Vegas NE by 10.5, O/U 47.5
This will be a statement game for Tom Brady. He will show the world he is healthy and looking for a big year. The Bills plain stink, and Trent Edwards will turn the ball over, oh and by the way Lynch is suspended. Moss and Brady will be in sync from play one. Expect a blowout and bet accordingly. Take the Pats for $150, Final Score Pats 42- Bills 14.
3 Chargers @
Oakland, Vegas SD by 9, O/U 43.
JaMarcus sucks. Al Davis sucks.
Oakland therefore sucks. The Chargers are my pick to win it all this year and they will show how good they are when they blowout the Raiders on a national stage. The Raiders have a great running game, but there will be 8 men in the box all day to stop McFadden. Rivers is a competitive guy and wants to show he belongs in the elite tier of QB’s, and he will put the ball in Antonio Gates’s hands. Also, LT wants to have a big year to shut up the critics, and the Chargers in general have a lot to prove. Take the Chargers for $105. Final Score Charger 38-
Long shot Parlay of the week: Chargers, Pats, Vikings, and Saints all to cover the spread for 50.
A cool$1500 has wagered, lets hope for the best and ill give you my totals on Tuesday.
These are my Week 1 picks. Enjoy and gamble responsibly (and by that I mean win).